
▲AI PRISM* Customized Economic Briefing
*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "artificial intelligence (AI)-based customized news recommendation and summary service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items for each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ KOSPI Breaks 8545 on US-Iran War's End… FOMC the Variable: With the signing of a US-Iran war-ending MOU, the KOSPI surged 422.36 points (5.2%) from the previous day to close at 8545.98, while foreign investors net-bought 1.0011 trillion won, continuing their buying stance for a second consecutive trading day. However, analysts say the possibility of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at this week's FOMC remains, and whether the relief rally continues will depend on the FOMC results.
■ Semiconductor Materials Supply Chain Normalizes… Price Hikes Expected to Begin in Earnest: With the US-Iran war ending after 106 days, materials suppliers such as precursors and specialty gases in the supply chains of Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) are accelerating raw material procurement, targeting inventory normalization by 2027. The industry expects that if the passing-on of rising costs begins in earnest, materials suppliers' earnings will improve significantly, explaining that the trickle-down effect of the K-memory super cycle is spreading across the entire materials industry.
■ Samsung, SK hynix 3x Leverage ETPs Listed in London… Supply-Demand Concentration Concerns: Leverage Shares listed 3x leverage ETPs based on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on the London Stock Exchange, and the Samsung Electronics ETP surged 22.63% on its listing day. Mirae Asset Securities (006800.KS) released an analysis that the concentration of funds in single-stock leverage ETFs is accelerating supply-demand outflows from other semiconductor stocks.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
1. Samsung, SK hynix 3x Leverage Launch in UK… Raising Volatility
- Key Summary: Leverage Shares listed 3x leverage ETPs based on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix on the London Stock Exchange, and the Samsung Electronics ETP surged 22.63% on its listing day, showing volatility about three times the return of the underlying asset. Current assets under management (AUM) stand at approximately 430 million won for Samsung Electronics and approximately 820 million won for SK hynix, which is not large. However, there is precedent: single-stock leverage ETFs listed domestically on the 27th of last month surged from an initial 1 trillion won range to 4 trillion and 5 trillion won respectively this month, raising the possibility of accelerated fund inflows. Mirae Asset Securities explained, "The concentration of funds in single-stock leverage ETFs and high-multiple overseas products is accelerating supply-demand outflows from semiconductor stocks other than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix."
2. KOSPI Surges 5.2%, Nikkei 4.9%… But US FOMC Risk Remains
- Key Summary: On news of the US-Iran war-ending MOU signing, the KOSPI soared 422.36 points (5.2%) to close at 8545.98, with a buy-side sidecar triggered for a second consecutive trading day during the session. Foreign investors net-bought 1.0011 trillion won and institutions 514.5 billion won, with Samsung Electronics (+4.5%, 337,000 won) and SK hynix (+6.42%, 2.238 million won) also showing strength. However, analysts diagnose that if hawkish signals emerge from the FOMC scheduled for the 16th-17th local time—such as an upward revision of the dot plot, mention of rate hikes, or QT-related remarks—a market shock will be unavoidable. Hana Securities stated, "The mainstream of the Korean market is once again earnings, and at the center of earnings is memory semiconductors," placing weight on the possibility that an upward trend resumes in the second half, centered on Samsung Electronics' second-quarter earnings guidance after the FOMC.
3. Foreign Stock Funds See Record 48 Trillion Won Net Outflow in May on Profit-Taking
- Key Summary: According to a Bank of Korea announcement, foreign investors' net outflow of domestic stock funds in May was $31.83 billion (about 48.1 trillion won), surpassing the previous record set in March this year (-$29.78 billion). Stock funds have seen net outflows for five consecutive months, with cumulative net outflows from January to May reaching $77.83 billion (about 117.61 trillion won). The BOK analyzed that rebalancing and profit-taking sales following the surge in domestic stock prices were factors expanding the net outflow. On the other hand, bond funds recorded a net inflow of $5.68 billion, marking two consecutive months in positive territory, due to inflows of WGBI-tracking funds.
[Reference News for Stock Investors]
4. With End of Iran War, Semiconductor Materials Supply Chain Moves to "Normalize"
- Key Summary: With the US-Iran war ending after 106 days, memory process materials suppliers such as precursors and specialty gases have begun securing raw materials, targeting inventory normalization by 2027. As Samsung Electronics and SK hynix advance their Pyeongtaek and Yongin plant expansion schedules by six months to a year to expand memory supply for AI infrastructure, materials demand is rapidly increasing. Materials suppliers were unable to fully reflect rising costs in their selling prices during the war at the request of clients, and they plan to recover more than 50% of this year's unrecovered costs after next year. The industry forecasts that if price hikes begin in earnest, materials industry earnings will improve significantly.
5. Exchange Rate Plunges 8.7 Won… "1,400 Won Settlement Hinges on Foreign Rebalancing"
- Key Summary: On news of the US-Iran war-ending agreement, the won-dollar exchange rate closed at 1,511.1 won, down 8.7 won from the previous trading day, falling as low as 1,503.9 won during the session for the lowest level since June 1. WTI July futures prices fell about 4.6% from the previous session to around $80 per barrel, leading the dollar's weakness. NH Nonghyup Bank expects dollar demand from foreign stock-selling funds to continue for the time being and presented a third-quarter exchange rate band of 1,470-1,540 won. The possibility of a hawkish FOMC stance is also cited as a factor limiting further exchange rate declines.
6. "SpaceX" Drew 334.5 Billion Won on Listing Day, But Aerospace ETFs Plunge
- Key Summary: SpaceX surged nearly 20% on its listing day, but domestic aerospace ETF performance was mixed. "KODEX US Aerospace" and "ACE US Space Tech Active," which have high SpaceX weightings, plunged 7.82% and 10.81% respectively, and while the total SpaceX holdings across six domestic ETFs amounted to 334.5 billion won, sharp price declines in existing aerospace stocks offset the inclusion effect. With inclusion at the IPO price falling through, asset managers who turned to on-market purchases faced a double burden including the burden of higher acquisition prices, and Mirae Asset Securities began reviewing monetary compensation plans for individual and corporate professional investors who participated in the IPO subscription. Kiwoom Securities (039490.KS) released an analysis that continued mechanical inclusion demand from domestic and foreign passive and active funds could temporarily expand supply-demand volatility across the stock market.
▶ Go to Article: "60-90 Days for Supply Chain Normalization"… Fuel Price Cuts May Take 2-3 Weeks More
▶ Go to Article: Venture Industry: "KOSDAQ Promotion-Relegation System Stigmatizes Growth Companies… Should Be Deferred"


▶ Go to Article: KOSPI Surges 5.2%, Nikkei 4.9%… But US FOMC Risk Remains










