TSMC Cites Capacity Limits as Google Calls Samsung for 2nm Foundry

*Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an "AI-based personalized news recommendation and summarization service" developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six customized news items by reader type.

1. TSMC Bottleneck Reshapes AI Supply Chain… Full-Scale Cooperation with Google on 2nm and HBM

- Key Summary: Google is considering Samsung Electronics as its production partner for the memory I/O die, a key component of its 10th-generation TPU (codenamed Icefish), and a dual-track configuration is being discussed in which the core computing chip is made on TSMC's 1.4nm process and the I/O die on Samsung Electronics' 2nm process. With TSMC monopolizing 73% of the foundry market, big tech companies are shifting to a multi-foundry strategy as supply bottlenecks have intensified due to a surge in AI chip demand. Samsung Electronics is broadening its customer base, securing Tesla's autonomous driving chip order worth about 25 trillion won followed by Nvidia's LPU, and its cooperative relationship with Google—through which it has supplied more than 60% of the HBM for TPUs—serves as the backdrop. Korea Investment & Securities forecast that if the order materializes, Samsung Electronics' non-memory business will turn to profit in the fourth quarter and then grow to a quarterly operating profit of 731 billion won in the fourth quarter of 2027.

2. KOSPI Restarts Toward 10,000 on Relief Rally… Nomura Says "MSCI Inclusion Probability 60%"

- Key Summary: The KOSPI surged 359.67 points (4.63%) to close at 8,123.62 as U.S. core PPI came in below expectations and expectations rose for Israel-Iran ceasefire negotiations, while the KOSDAQ also rose 3.22% to 1,029.05. Jung Chang-won, co-head of Asia research at Nomura Securities, diagnosed that a "triple super cycle" in which HBM, DRAM, and NAND demand increase simultaneously is underway, and that AI-driven memory demand could grow more than 10,000-fold over the next five years. Park Se-young, head of Korea Research, assessed the probability of inclusion in the MSCI developed market index watchlist this month at 60%, noting that if included, a verification process typically takes two years before a decision is made on reflection in the developed market index. Next week's FOMC dot plot changes and global capital movements following SpaceX's listing are cited as short-term variables.

3. 'M10' Reshuffle vs 'Memory 7' Counterattack… Battle for AI Leadership

- Key Summary: While forecasts suggest M7 could be reshuffled into M10 with SpaceX's listing and the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, the only M7 stock to outperform the Nasdaq's return (11.08%) since the start of the year is Google (13.52%), while Meta (-12.60%) and Microsoft (-17.47%) continue to underperform. Shinhan Investment & Securities diagnosed that seven memory companies—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix (000660.KS), Micron, SanDisk, Kioxia, Western Digital, and Seagate—have emerged as the leading global semiconductor sector, backed by the overwhelming returns of Micron (215.73%) and SanDisk (583.59%). Kioxia overtook Toyota to claim the top market capitalization spot on Japan's Nikkei 225, symbolically demonstrating the shift in the memory sector's status. Park Moon-hwan, director at Hana Securities, said that while the IPOs of AI giants have acted as a short-term liquidity black hole, the core demand for AI infrastructure and the peak in stock prices have not yet passed.

4. Chasing Buys on FOMO… 29% of SK hynix Retail Investors Entered in Past Month

- Key Summary: Based on Samsung Securities (016360.KS) customers, 29% of individual investors holding SK hynix (369,353 people) were found to be those who newly bought within the past month, and a significant portion of them are estimated to have entered near the intraday high of 2.36 million won. Despite SK hynix investors' average return of 181.65%, the proportion of loss-making investors reaches 19%, which analysts say reveals the risk of chasing buys at peak levels. Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150.KS) had a loss-making investor proportion of 28% even though the period in which losses were possible was only two trading days, and the proportion of holders of one month or less was 50%, cited as an example of how widely the FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has been at work. A securities firm official advised, "When volatility is high like now, you should avoid full-betting, which is investing all available funds at once, and instead practice split buying."