KOSPI Plunges 5.5% to 8,160 on Broadcom Results, SpaceX Valuation

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1. Broadcom Shock and SpaceX-Driven Capital Outflow… "First Support Line at 8,000"

- Key Summary: The KOSPI plunged 5.54% (478.82 points) to close at 8,160.59, as disappointment over Broadcom's AI revenue forecast was compounded by concerns over reduced memory capacity in Nvidia's "Vera Rubin." Early in the session it slid to the 8,038 level, triggering this year's 10th sell sidecar, and the KOSDAQ also broke below the 1,000 level intraday. Foreign investors poured out a cumulative 70.2 trillion won over 20 consecutive trading days of net selling, and combined with liquidity outflow ahead of the SpaceX listing, the decline overwhelmed those of Japan, China, and Taiwan. Securities firms presented the 8,000 level as the first support line while diagnosing that if this line breaks, the correction could expand to the early 7,000 level.

2. "Market Fundamentals Still Positive… Watch AI, Defense, Income-Type ETFs"

- Key Summary: Ryan O'Connor, CEO of Global X, said in an interview with Seoul Economic Daily that the current market volatility is due to geopolitical factors and that the fundamental outlook remains positive thanks to structural AI growth. He specifically presented AI value chain ETFs, Asian defense ETFs, and weekly dividend income ETFs as this year's "killer products," and expected that when SpaceX lists, it would be included in the Global X space tech ETF (ORBX). Global X's AUM has grown more than 12-fold over eight years, from $8.1 billion at the time of its acquisition in 2018 to $100.6 billion (154 trillion won) currently, leading the thematic ETF market. Global X AIQ is a flagship AI mega-fund with $10.3 billion (16 trillion won) in AUM, and the AI semiconductor and quantum computing theme ETF "CHPX" also grew rapidly to $200 million (308.2 billion won) just six months after launch, he explained.

3. Bank Stocks Smiled While Semiconductors Fell… "Defensive Stock" True Colors in Correction

- Key Summary: Even amid the KOSPI plunge, 8 of the 11 bank stocks closed higher, highlighting their defensive role. Shinhan Financial Group (+7.39%) and KB Financial (+4.51%), and on a cumulative basis this month, Shinhan Financial Group (+14.85%) and KB Financial (+13.94%) recorded double-digit gains, while the KOSPI fell 3.72% over the same period. As the Financial Supervisory Service lowered ELS penalties from a total of 1.4 trillion won to 600 billion won, the possibility of upward revisions to this year's profit estimates increased, and the combined net profit forecast for the four companies—KB, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori Financial—is estimated at 19.913 trillion won, up 10.9% from the previous year. Along with shareholder return appeal at a dividend yield of 3.2-4.8% and ROE of 7.9-10.6%, expectations for NIM improvement based on the possibility of a Bank of Korea base rate hike in July are analyzed as factors raising the investment appeal of bank stocks.

4. AI Revenue to Jump 100-Fold Within 5 Years?... SpaceX's 2,600 Trillion Won Valuation Sparks Debate

- Key Summary: Goldman Sachs, the SpaceX IPO underwriter, presented a $1.78 trillion (2,600 trillion won) valuation based on a scenario in which AI division (xAI) revenue surges more than 100-fold within five years, from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030. By contrast, Morningstar presented a fair value of $780 billion (1,200 trillion won)—only about half—citing the unproven profitability of the AI business and intensifying competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. xAI experienced organizational instability with 10 co-founders departing in just two years since its founding, and even after the listing on the 12th, S&P 500 inclusion is expected to take at least one year, leading to assessments of significant investment uncertainty. The FT noted that this optimism is an example of how aggressive the assumptions underlying the current AI investment frenzy are.