Nomura Securities has raised its KOSPI target for this year to as high as 11,000, citing a memory chip super-cycle and improving capital efficiency among Korean listed companies.
According to the financial investment industry on Tuesday, Nomura Securities lifted its 2025 KOSPI target to a range of 10,000 to 11,000 from the previous 7,500 to 8,000 in a report released the previous day.
"This is based on a cycle driven by corporate earnings and return on equity (ROE)," Nomura said. "Commodity memory and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are in a super-cycle, which will be the key driver of KOSPI earnings growth and ROE in 2026-2027."
Among domestic brokerages, Hyundai Motor Securities had previously presented a KOSPI target of 9,750 for this year and mentioned the possibility of up to 12,000 in a bull market scenario. However, this is the first time a target range as high as 11,000 has been officially presented.
Nomura paid particular attention to the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure industry. "The AI infrastructure sector, including memory and HBM, power equipment, energy storage systems (ESS) and nuclear power, will generate sustainable ROE over the next five years," the report said.
Expanded shareholder returns and improved capital efficiency among companies were also cited as factors driving the market higher. "As listed companies pivot toward enhancing capital efficiency, expanding shareholder returns and utilizing optimal leverage, this will support higher price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book value (P/BV) multiples," Nomura explained.
Government policies were also assessed positively. Mandatory disclosure of target ROE, restraints on holding non-core assets, and policies improving listing requirements and governance structures could lift the KOSPI, according to the report.
Defense and automobiles were named as promising sectors. Defense is expected to benefit from rising geopolitical tensions and defense demand from various countries, while the automobile sector was positively evaluated as it transforms into a physical AI and autonomous driving platform.
Nomura also forecast that policies to revitalize the KOSDAQ and the possibility of inclusion in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) developed market watchlist could serve as additional upside catalysts.
Nomura's target prices for major Korean companies are 4 million won for SK hynix (000660.KS), 590,000 won for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), 240,000 won for Kia (000270.KS), and 900,000 won for Samsung SDI.
Domestic and overseas securities firms are increasingly forecasting the KOSPI to break through 10,000 within the year. Kiwoom Securities recently predicted the KOSPI would surpass 10,000 within the year, saying that although domestic market volatility has increased, the momentum of the KOSPI rally remains alive.
Global investment banks (IBs) such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also recently sharply revised their KOSPI targets to 10,000 points, lending weight to the medium- to long-term upside potential of the Korean stock market.
