Hana Securities said the KOSPI could enter the 10,000-point era, projecting that the benchmark index can break above its previous expected ceiling once current corporate earnings estimates materialize, even without assuming a valuation re-rating.
In a report titled "KOSPI, Now Entering the 10,000-Point Era" released Tuesday, Hana Securities forecast KOSPI net profit of 689 trillion won for this year and 853 trillion won for 2027. Applying the KOSPI's average price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 9.96 times since 2010 to the 2027 earnings projection, the market capitalization could expand to 8,499 trillion won, the brokerage said. Converted into index points, that translates to 10,380.
Hana Securities had previously set its KOSPI ceiling at 8,470 points. "Even without assuming a PER re-rating, the KOSPI can enter the 10,000-point era if current earnings estimates materialize," said Lee Jae-man, a researcher at Hana Securities. The KOSPI's current 12-month forward PER stands at 7.95 times, below the average since 2010.
The variable is whether corporate earnings can grow as expected amid high oil prices and high interest rates. Hana Securities said the recent rise in oil prices is a war-driven spike, making it more likely a short-term overshoot than a sustained medium-to-long-term uptrend. Over the past three months, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices rose an average 63% year-on-year, but capital expenditure growth at S&P 500 technology firms came in higher at 80%.
The brokerage also flagged signals that could mark the end of the bull run. Should capex growth at S&P 500 tech firms fall below WTI's price increase, or should net profit estimates for KOSPI semiconductor stocks be revised downward, the earnings-driven index rally could lose momentum, the report said. The 12-month forward net profit for S&P 500 tech stocks currently stands at $970 billion, while the 12-month forward net profit for KOSPI semiconductors is at 544 trillion won, with upward revisions continuing this year.
On the concentration in Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix (000660), Hana Securities said the phenomenon is explainable when accounting for their earnings share. The two stocks' combined weight in KOSPI market capitalization has risen to 48%. However, based on 12-month forward net profit, their share of total KOSPI earnings reaches 72%. Compared with Taiwan's TAIEX, where TSMC accounts for 44% of market capitalization and 43% of net profit based on 2027 forecasts, it is difficult to argue that the market cap weight of Korea's large-cap chipmakers is excessive relative to earnings.
SK hynix's presence is particularly unusual compared with past second-ranked KOSPI companies. According to Hana Securities, SK hynix's share of KOSPI market capitalization stands at 22%, the highest level ever recorded among historical No. 2 companies. The ratio of SK hynix's market cap to that of Samsung Electronics has also climbed to 85%, narrowing the gap rapidly.
Hana Securities cited a scenario in which SK hynix overtakes Samsung Electronics in market capitalization as a risk signal for the current bull market. The brokerage pointed to the 2000 U.S. tech bubble, when Cisco Systems surpassed Microsoft and General Electric (GE) to become the largest company by market cap, despite generating only 20% of GE's net profit and 28% of Microsoft's. Samsung Electronics' net profit is still projected at 280 trillion won in 2026 and 349 trillion won in 2027, exceeding SK hynix's projections of 208 trillion won and 272 trillion won.
