A semiconductor super-cycle and inflation concerns stemming from the Middle East war are converging to push stocks and market interest rates higher in tandem, defying conventional economic patterns. On one side, expectations for artificial intelligence (AI)-driven chip demand are absorbing liquidity, while on the other, the possibility of rising oil prices and higher global interest rates is lifting bond yields. Experts say this dual structure could deepen "K-shaped polarization," in which macroeconomic indicators look strong while vulnerable groups suffer increasingly.
According to the financial industry on the 17th, the yield on three-year Korean Treasury bonds rose to 3.766% on the 15th, up 0.813 percentage points from 2.953% at the end of last year. The gap with the base rate (2.5%) widened to 1.26 percentage points, the largest in three years and seven months since the Legoland default crisis.
Over the same period, the KOSPI surged 77.8% from 4,214 to 7,493.2. Kwon Hyo-sung, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said, "Stock investors view semiconductors as affecting corporate earnings, economic growth, the current account and tax revenues, while the bond market is driven by inflation and prospects of base rate hikes." He added, "Each has different reasons."
Indeed, on the back of the semiconductor boom, Korea's first-quarter growth rate of 1.694% was the highest among 22 major countries. By contrast, international oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel, the possibility of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5.1% are weighing on the bond market.
As a result, the average interest rate on bank mid-term loans (based on new loans), which had fallen to 3.96% last year, climbed to 4.17% in March. Mortgage rates also rose 0.47 percentage points from last year's low. In particular, the "money move" into stocks has reduced demand for Treasury bonds and pushed yields further up, worsening the situation. Lee Seung-heon, professor of economics at Soongsil University, stressed, "It is time to use part of the excess tax revenue to support vulnerable groups and to consider restructuring."
