As the likelihood of a strike by Samsung Electronics' (005930.KS) labor union grows, the union at rival SK hynix (000660.KS) is quietly managing its reaction. A prolonged strike at Samsung Electronics would cause up to 30 trillion won in earnings damage by the union's own estimate, ultimately boomeranging to eat into the bonuses the strike aims to secure.
By contrast, amid a severe memory shortage, SK hynix stands to benefit from rising chip prices, with analysts projecting that the scale of its bonus payouts could grow significantly larger.
According to the industry on the 11th, SK hynix is expected to emerge as the biggest beneficiary if Samsung Electronics' union actually goes on strike. From customers' perspective, facing uncertain memory delivery schedules due to strike concerns, they are more likely to choose SK hynix over Samsung Electronics. Big Tech firms including Apple are already closely monitoring the possibility of a Samsung strike, to the point of considering switching suppliers.
The immediate damage Samsung Electronics would suffer from a May strike is estimated at up to 30 trillion won. If the situation drags on, the damage could snowball. Semiconductor fabs, which operate on the premise of 24-hour continuous production, must scrap tens of thousands of wafers mid-process once operations halt.
Industry observers point out that a strike by Samsung Electronics' union would create a contradiction by eroding the very bonuses they seek. The consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' operating profit this year is approximately 340 trillion won. The union is currently demanding 15% of that operating profit (about 51 trillion won) as its Overall Performance Incentive (OPI).
If the strike causes an immediate 30 trillion won loss and shutdown damages accumulate, this earnings outlook would collapse in an instant. Annual operating profit would inevitably decline by the amount of strike losses, and the linked 15% bonus pool would also evaporate by trillions of won. The strike card meant to pressure management would instead become a self-inflicted wound that reduces the total bonuses workers receive.
SK hynix is likely to reap the windfall. With the artificial intelligence (AI) market expanding, both high bandwidth memory (HBM) and general-purpose DRAM face such severe supply shortages that sellers can name their price, and the entire market share landscape could be overturned.
According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, Samsung Electronics recorded a 36% revenue-based share in the global DRAM market in the fourth quarter of last year, dramatically reclaiming the top spot from SK hynix (32%) after a year. However, if production lines halt due to this strike, Samsung risks surrendering the DRAM throne it barely recaptured and sliding back to second place.
The HBM market situation is even more severe. As of the fourth quarter of last year, SK hynix holds the top spot with a 57% share in the HBM market, while Samsung Electronics trails at 22%. Once strike risk surfaces, customers will inevitably flock to SK hynix, which operates its fabs stably.
As bargaining power and chip sales prices surge, SK hynix's operating profit forecast, previously around 227 trillion won, is also expected to climb sharply. Ultimately, SK hynix employees, who receive 10% of operating profit as Profit Sharing (PS), will hit a bonus jackpot far exceeding that of Samsung Electronics as their company expands market share.
Even more painful is the shaking of the firm trust built with major global customers. Global Big Tech firms such as Nvidia and Apple prioritize stable component supply as much as short-term chip performance. They are unlikely to entrust core components to a company carrying strike risk that could halt production at any time.
"When supply chain instability mounts, global customers have no choice but to activate Plan B by diversifying orders to other competitors," a senior semiconductor industry official warned. "Samsung Electronics' union must painfully recognize that the deeper it becomes mired in short-term bonus struggles, the more it will hand over critical long-term agreement (LTA) volumes and future market leadership to SK hynix."
