The outlook for national home prices has weakened significantly from early this year due to the government's stringent real estate regulations, a survey showed. However, seven out of 10 real estate market experts still expect home prices in the Seoul metropolitan area to rise this year, as supply shortages and upward pressure on pre-sale prices persist.
According to the "2026 KB Real Estate Report" released by KB Management Research Institute on Thursday, 56% of experts and 46% of real estate agents surveyed last month expected national home sale prices to rise. This marks a sharp decline from the institute's January survey, in which 81% of experts and 76% of licensed real estate agents predicted an increase.
The shift is attributed to the government's strengthened regulatory stance on real estate since February. On February 12, the government announced plans to end the moratorium on heavier capital gains taxes for multi-home owners. On February 26, President Lee Jae-myung said, "We will create a situation where not only multi-home owners but also investment- and speculation-purpose single-home owners find it more advantageous to sell than to hold," hinting at possible regulations on non-resident single-home owners. Experts projected that the government's real estate regulations would weigh on housing prices.
As the top factor behind potential price declines, 27% of real estate market experts and 29% of licensed agents cited "difficulty in financing due to loan regulations." The policy expected to have the greatest impact on the housing market in the second half was identified as the heavier capital gains tax on multi-home owners, chosen as the top factor by 27% of experts and 33% of licensed agents.
Meanwhile, in the April survey, 72% of experts still expected home sale prices in the Seoul metropolitan area to rise. Among licensed agents, 66% also forecast an increase in Seoul-area home sale prices. The analysis suggests that while buyer sentiment has been dampened by government regulations, the supply shortage in the Seoul metropolitan area and rising pre-sale prices driven by higher construction costs are limiting price declines.
Most respondents expected the gains to be modest. Among real estate market experts, 32% forecast Seoul-area home price growth of 1-3%, the largest share, followed by 25% who projected gains of 0-1%.
The outlook for the jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) market was more bullish. Some 87% of real estate market experts expected jeonse prices in the Seoul metropolitan area to rise this year. While lower than the January survey's 96%, the level remains high. Among licensed agents, 87% also expected Seoul-area jeonse prices to rise.
The outlook for national jeonse prices was also weighted toward gains. Some 83% of experts and 85% of licensed agents expected national jeonse prices to rise. The projection appears to reflect concerns that tighter regulations on gap investment—buying homes while leaving jeonse tenants in place—could reduce the supply of jeonse listings.
Many also expected the shift toward monthly rent to become more pronounced. Those who said the share of monthly rent transactions would increase going forward accounted for 81% of real estate market experts and 60% of licensed agents. The analysis suggests that as jeonse prices remain elevated, demand is likely to shift toward monthly rent to reduce the burden of deposits.
According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's Housing Survey, the share of monthly rent households among tenant households rose from 43% in 2006 to 60% in 2024. The shift toward monthly rent is also accelerating in the Seoul metropolitan area apartment market, where jeonse had long been dominant. The share of monthly rent transactions in apartment lease deals nationwide reached 50.6% on a cumulative basis for January and February 2026. Given that the figure was in the high 30% range in 2022, this represents a significant expansion over three years.
The April survey was conducted from March 31 to April 3 among 130 real estate market experts, 506 licensed real estate agents and 64 private bankers (PBs). The January survey was conducted from January 14 to February 6 among 142 experts, 512 agents and 64 PBs.
