The number of pregnant women who registered with public health centers from April last year through March this year totaled 351,000, signaling a potential rebound in Korea's birthrate. The category includes both expectant mothers and those who recently gave birth.
The figure represents a roughly 16% increase from 300,000 in the previous year, fueling expectations that this year's births could surpass 300,000 for the first time in seven years. First-quarter birth registrations have already posted their largest increase on record, suggesting cracks in the country's long-running low birthrate trend.
According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare on Tuesday, while the number of registered pregnancies is not an official statistical indicator, it serves as a leading indicator for projecting future births.
Considering that 10-15% of pregnancies typically do not result in childbirth, this year's births are estimated at around 300,000. Last year's births rebounded to the 250,000 range, meaning this year would mark another step up. It would be the first time births have recovered to the 300,000 range since 2019.
Short-term indicators are also positive. First-quarter birth registrations at the Ministry of the Interior and Safety reached 73,742, up about 15% from a year earlier, the largest increase on record. While birth registrations do not perfectly match the official birth figures compiled by the National Data Agency, they typically follow a similar trend within a margin of about 2%.
The National Data Agency's January birth count also showed 26,916 births, up 11.7% from the same month a year earlier, continuing the similar trend. If this upward momentum continues, this year's total fertility rate could exceed 0.9, analysts said.
That would surpass the future total fertility rate projection outlined in the National Data Agency's "high-scenario estimate," which reflected marriage and childbirth trends through 2022. The agency had previously projected this year's total fertility rate at 0.8, but that level was actually reached a year ahead of schedule last year. As a result, the timing for recovery to a total fertility rate of 1.0 in new estimates could also come sooner than previously expected.
"Definitive predictions are difficult due to various variables," a National Data Agency official said. "But since the total fertility rate already exceeded 0.8 last year, we expect the positive trend to continue this year."
