The KOSPI touched the 6000 level intraday for the first time in approximately six weeks since the outbreak of the Iran war. Expectations for behind-the-scenes negotiations between the United States and Iran, combined with anticipated earnings improvements centered on semiconductors, drove foreign investors to turn net buyers for the first time in three months.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 14th, the KOSPI closed at 5967.75, up 159.75 points (2.74%) from the previous day. The index briefly climbed to 6026.52 during the session, crossing the 6000 threshold, before paring some gains. This marks the first time the KOSPI has recovered the 6000 level intraday since March 3, following the outbreak of the Iran war.
On the supply-demand front, individual investors net sold 2.39 trillion won while foreign and institutional investors net purchased 831.7 billion won and 1.25 trillion won respectively, driving the index higher. Notably, foreign investors have net purchased 5.38 trillion won this month through the 14th, turning to net buyers for the first time in three months. This contrasts sharply with their selling of 21.07 trillion won in February and 35.88 trillion won in March. The top stocks purchased by foreigners on the KOSPI this month were SK hynix (000660.KS) at 2.87 trillion won and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) at 1.96 trillion won, accounting for 90% of total net purchases.
Market observers attribute the rally to a growing perception that war tensions have peaked amid expectations for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations. Although the first ceasefire talks ended without results, investor sentiment improved on hopes for a future agreement. Corporate earnings improvements in Korea further stimulated buying activity.
"Historically, war-related impacts have been digested within a month," said Kim Tae-hong, CEO of Growth Hill Asset Management. "Now the market will follow corporate fundamentals, and foreign investors are buying with a focus on corporate profits as semiconductor stock prices remain strong and industry conditions are favorable."
According to Kiwoom Securities (039490.KS), the KOSPI operating profit forecast for this year has been revised upward by 20% to 772 trillion won since April, compared to end-March estimates.
Semiconductors, whose valuations had been significantly compressed relative to earnings due to geopolitical risks, led the day's rally. Samsung Electronics rose 2.74% to 206,500 won, while SK hynix surged 6.06% to a record high of 1,103,000 won.
SK hynix in particular rallied on expectations of an earnings surprise in its preliminary Q1 results scheduled for April 23. Kiwoom Securities estimated Q1 operating profit at over 40 trillion won, exceeding the market consensus of around 38 trillion won. KB Securities subsequently raised its target price for SK hynix to 2 million won.
Securities stocks also joined the rally. Mirae Asset Securities soared 10.87%, reflecting earnings momentum from increased trading volumes, brokerage revenue expectations, and anticipation of a SpaceX listing.
As the KOSPI approaches 6000 with eased war concerns, securities analysts in Yeouido are maintaining bullish forecasts. KB Securities projected the KOSPI could rise to 7500 if strong semiconductor earnings, improved fiscal conditions, and won-dollar exchange rate stabilization converge.
However, high exchange rates and Middle East risks persist, while fatigue from the recent sharp rally and profit-taking pressure remain burdensome factors. Analysts note that whether the index can establish a foothold at the 6000 level will be key to further gains.
"The current market is experiencing heightened volatility with upward and downward pressures from war uncertainty and semiconductor conditions simultaneously," said Chung Yong-taek, chief research fellow at IBK Investment & Securities. "Caution increases near previous highs, making a breakout in the short term potentially difficult."
