As the Middle East war entered a two-week ceasefire, negotiations between the United States and Iran were held in Pakistan's capital but have reportedly broken down. The two countries had been exchanging positions through indirect contact via mediating nations.
The US presented a 15-point peace proposal to Iran late last month, which Iran countered by revising it to 10 points. The US proposal centers on complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, limits on missile and military capabilities, cessation of support for pro-Iranian militant groups, prohibition of Strait of Hormuz blockades with guaranteed navigation, easing Middle East tensions, and sanctions relief incentives.
Iran, in contrast, demanded non-aggression guarantees and withdrawal of US troops from the region, recognition of uranium enrichment rights, complete lifting of sanctions against Iran and war reparations, termination of UN and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions, and maintenance of control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The two sides appear to have failed to reach agreement due to significant gaps on nuclear issues, sanctions, US military presence, and strait passage. The US sought swift resolution with a hardline stance, while Iran appeared prepared for prolonged negotiations. The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz is a key variable—Iran has made clear its intention to maintain control, while the US is increasing pressure through counter-blockade measures and fund cutoffs.
If negotiations resume, realistic compromise will likely begin with the nuclear issue, as preventing Iran's nuclear development was the core justification for the war. Minimum standards could include halting Iran's high-enrichment program, reducing and monitoring nuclear facilities, and regular IAEA inspections—similar to past nuclear agreement levels. Economic sanctions would likely be eased gradually, and missile issues would likely involve setting caps and strengthening monitoring rather than outright bans.
However, Iran's proxy forces, including the "Axis of Resistance," are areas where formal negotiations appear difficult. Even after the ceasefire, conflicts continue with Israel intensifying airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. A realistic compromise would likely involve reducing proxy forces' military activities and unofficially decreasing Iran's weapons support. Issues regarding the Strait of Hormuz and US military presence in the Middle East may also result in joint security guarantees and limited agreements.
The gap between the two countries' negotiating positions is not small. Pessimistic outlooks suggest that if negotiations completely collapse, military conflict could intensify further, pushing the global economy into recession. However, a cautious assessment is that current tensions represent a form of leverage as both countries seek to secure the upper hand in negotiations. It is also positive that Iran, unlike early in the war, now acknowledges and desires negotiations. For the US government as well, prolonged war and energy supply shocks bring far more losses than gains. Tensions in the Middle East war are expected to ease by April, or at the latest before the US-China summit scheduled for mid-May.
