This week, indicators showing recent employment trends and import price conditions will be released. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will announce revised growth forecasts for South Korea this year, while China will release its first-quarter economic growth statistics.
The National Data Agency will announce the "March Employment Trends" on the 15th. In February, the increase in the number of employed persons recovered to the 200,000 range for the first time in three months, but the youth unemployment rate recorded 7.7%, the highest in five years. Attention is focused on whether the sluggish employment trend among young people in their 20s and 30s continued last month.
The Bank of Korea will release the "March Export-Import Price Index" on the same day. Import prices announced in February rose 1.1% from the previous month, continuing an upward trend for eight consecutive months. Given that the won-dollar exchange rate rose to the 1,530 won range last month due to the aftermath of the Iran war and international oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, the upward trend in import prices is expected to have continued.
Prior to this, on the 14th, the IMF's "April World Economic Outlook" will be released. The IMF publishes economic forecasts for the world and member countries four times a year in January, April, July, and October. In January, it projected South Korea's growth rate this year at 1.9%. Considering the structural characteristics of the Korean economy, which has high dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil, there is a possibility of a slight downward revision to the mid-1% range. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also recently lowered South Korea's growth rate this year from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the Bank of Korea has also predicted it will fall below its previous forecast of 2%.
Overseas, attention is focused on China's first-quarter economic growth rate. The Chinese government lowered this year's growth target from "around 5%" to "4.5-5%," the lowest level in 35 years, and will release the first-quarter report card for the year. Market expectations are around 4.8%.
In the United States, the first-quarter earnings season for companies begins in earnest. Starting with Goldman Sachs, financial companies such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, as well as Netflix, will announce their earnings this week. With the United States and Iran entering a two-week ceasefire, U.S. corporate earnings are expected to be a major variable in the stock market for the time being.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book, its latest economic conditions report, two weeks ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of this month. Attention is focused on this because the employment and price trends diagnosed in this report could influence the direction of U.S. interest rates.
