The ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran has divided retail investors, with those who bet on market direction and oil prices experiencing sharply divergent fortunes.
According to ETF Check and other data sources on Thursday, retail investors net purchased 53.6 billion won of KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X on the previous day, making it the most heavily bought product. This ETF inversely tracks the KOSPI 200 futures index at twice the leverage. Retail investors also net purchased 34.5 billion won of KODEX Inverse.
However, these products took a direct hit when markets surged following news of the ceasefire. KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X plunged 15.56% on Thursday, while KODEX Inverse closed down 7.7%.
Retail investors appear to have placed bearish bets to hedge against uncertainty ahead of the negotiation deadline in Korean time. But the situation reversed dramatically when U.S. President Donald Trump declared a two-week halt to attacks on the condition that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz.
On Thursday, President Trump effectively formalized ceasefire expectations by announcing a two-week suspension of attacks conditional on Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestic markets responded with a sharp rally. The KOSPI closed up 6.87%, and a buy sidecar was triggered early in the session due to the surge in KOSPI 200 futures.
Meanwhile, investors who bet on falling oil prices came out winners. Retail investors net purchased 18.7 billion won of KODEX WTI Crude Oil Futures Inverse (H) on the previous day, and that ETF surged 17.9% on Thursday. TIGER Crude Oil Futures Inverse (H) also rose 16.4%, ranking among the top performers.
The gains came as international oil prices plunged following the ceasefire announcement. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude both fell below $100 per barrel during trading.
The past week showed a similar pattern. Retail investors net purchased 308.5 billion won of KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X from January 1 to 7, but the product posted a return of negative 19.94% over the same period. KODEX Inverse also fell nearly 10% despite 122.8 billion won in net purchases.
Meanwhile, construction-related ETFs surged on expectations that a ceasefire would lead to Middle East reconstruction benefits. KODEX Construction and TIGER 200 Construction both posted gains of around 17% on Thursday.
"Among future scenarios, the most likely is sideways movement amid high volatility," said Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities. "Rather than succumbing to FOMO psychology and fearing being left out of a rally, investors need to soberly track whether the detailed provisions of the ceasefire agreement are being implemented."
