The share of upward transactions in Seoul's apartment market fell to its lowest level in seven months last month. The decline is attributed to an increase in downward transactions as multi-home owners rushed to offload properties ahead of the expiration of the capital gains tax surcharge moratorium.
According to an analysis of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) actual transaction data by Zigbang, a real estate platform, upward transactions accounted for 51.4% of Seoul apartment sales in March, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous month's 59%. This marked the largest monthly decline since November 2023 and the lowest level since August last year (48.1%).
The Gangnam Three Districts — Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa — saw a particularly sharp drop in upward transactions. The share fell to 50% in March, down 11.2 percentage points from 61.2% the previous month, the lowest since August last year (48.1%). Gangnam-gu dropped 18.2 percentage points from 58.7% to 40.5%. Seocho-gu fell 13.2 percentage points from 66.3% to 53.1%. Songpa-gu declined 7.6 percentage points from 60.3% to 52.7%.
The capital area also saw the share of upward transactions fall to 44%, down 6.5 percentage points from the previous month's 50.5%. Meanwhile, the share of downward transactions rose to 40.4%, up 5.7 percentage points from 34.7%, signaling a shift in market dynamics. Nationwide, upward apartment transactions slipped to 44.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 48%. Transaction volume also dropped by 8,277 units to 30,325 from 38,602 the previous month, reflecting a broader cooling across the market.
This trend is interpreted as the combined result of rising tax burdens from higher assessed property values ahead of the May property holding tax assessment date and multi-home owners offloading properties before the capital gains tax surcharge moratorium expires. Adjustment movements are particularly evident in the Gangnam area, which has a high concentration of expensive apartments.
Non-Gangnam areas of Seoul saw a smaller decline in upward transaction share compared to the Gangnam Three Districts. The share fell 7.3 percentage points to 51.5% in March from 58.8% the previous month. The share of downward transactions rose 4.3 percentage points to 31.5% from 27.3%. The relatively smaller decline in non-Gangnam areas is attributed to a higher proportion of apartments in price ranges eligible for mortgage financing, sustaining purchases driven by end-user demand.
In Gyeonggi Province, the share of upward transactions fell 4.6 percentage points from 47.5% to 42.9%. Incheon saw a 6.1 percentage point decline from 46.3% to 40.2% in March. Non-capital areas edged down just 0.7 percentage points from 45.6% to 44.9%, showing a more stable trend compared to the capital area.
"In March, buyer sentiment weakened mainly in the capital area, but transaction prices are maintaining downward rigidity as sellers are reluctant to lower asking prices," said Kim Eun-sun, head of the Big Data Lab at Zigbang. "Areas that experienced significant price increases are showing some adjustment trends in March as the burden from changes in the tax and financial environment weighs relatively heavily."
