Ethical controversy is rapidly spreading around Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market. Criticism is mounting that lives and safety are being treated as "investment products" as wars, disasters, and even the possibility of military conflict are consumed as betting targets.
According to industry sources on Wednesday, a betting market recently appeared on the platform allowing users to wager on the timing of the rescue of a U.S. military fighter pilot who went missing in Iran. The market was deleted after sparking controversy. The incident stemmed from the downing of a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps anti-aircraft fire, which left the pilot missing.
The pilot was reportedly rescued after approximately 50 hours. However, criticism has continued over the fact that the unfolding of the incident itself was used as a betting target.
"Information Market or Gambling Den?"… Insider Trading Suspicions Emerge
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users place funds on whether specific events will occur and receive profit distributions based on the outcomes. The platform touts that transaction records are stored on a distributed ledger and settlements are automatically executed through smart contracts, reducing the possibility of manipulation. It drew significant attention for its high accuracy rate during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
However, fairness concerns are emerging in areas with significant information asymmetry, such as military and diplomatic affairs. Some participants may have used non-public information, and observers have noted that betting funds appeared to concentrate on specific outcomes. Some have even alleged attempts to intervene in opinion formation or information distribution to influence betting results.
"Even Lives Become Tradable"… Regulatory Discussions Intensify
Ethical issues have also emerged as a core point of contention. Public resistance is growing against a structure in which tragic events such as war, terrorism, and disasters are consumed as profit opportunities. Criticism has intensified particularly as matters directly tied to human life — such as survival status or rescue timing — have appeared as tradable items.
Discussions on the need for regulation are gaining momentum across countries. Self-regulatory measures including strengthened insider trading prevention mechanisms and restrictions on high-risk events are being discussed. U.S. lawmakers have also reportedly begun reviewing related legislation. In South Korea, using the service is effectively illegal, but access across borders remains possible due to the nature of blockchain, and the number of users continues to grow.
"Prediction markets can function as information tools, but using human lives as objects of speculation is socially unacceptable," an industry official said. "There needs to be a discussion on how to strike a balance between market functionality and ethical standards."