Hugel (145020.KQ), a South Korean aesthetics and botulinum toxin maker, is forecast to show a clear "weak first half, strong second half" pattern this year, with profitability constrained by rising costs in the first half before earnings improvement kicks in during the second half. Analysts say the stock is likely to gain upward momentum in the second half once it digests short-term earnings pressure and enters a profit recovery phase.
According to Sangsangin Securities, Hugel's consolidated revenue for the first quarter of 2026 is expected to reach 108.5 billion won, up 20.8% year-on-year. However, operating profit is projected at 43.4 billion won, a modest 11.4% increase that would largely meet market consensus. While revenue continues its growth trajectory, profitability is expected to be constrained by rising costs tied to distribution network buildout and marketing expansion in the North American market.
The North American toxin business in particular has shown short-term volatility but is expected to recover gradually. With surgical procedures normalizing and distribution channels expanding, North American toxin sales are forecast to grow approximately 20% on an annual basis. Exports are also expanding in other overseas markets including Brazil, strengthening the company's global revenue base.
The primary driver of the first-half earnings slowdown is rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses. Pre-emptive investment spending to expand overseas markets is being recognized upfront, capping profit growth. However, the pace of cost increases is expected to moderate in the second half while revenue expands, leading to rapid profitability improvement.
Growth fundamentals remain intact in the domestic market as well. Both the toxin and filler product lines are maintaining stable demand, and market share gains are expected to continue through product lineup expansion. The filler segment in particular is forecast to sustain solid growth on the back of brand competitiveness despite intensifying competition.
Securities analysts see a high probability that this earnings trajectory will be reflected in the stock price. They expect investor sentiment to recover once second-half earnings improvement becomes visible following the share price correction driven by first-half cost burdens.
"In the first half, profit leverage is constrained by rising costs, but in the second half, the 'weak first, strong second' structure is clear, with profitability improving alongside revenue growth," Sangsangin Securities said. "The stock price is also expected to secure upward momentum as second-half earnings improve."
