Wall Street investment bank Bernstein has declared that Bitcoin has found its floor and could surpass $150,000 (approximately 224 million won) by the end of this year. The firm says the market has fundamentally shifted from one dominated by retail speculation to an institutional structure driven by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate capital, making this downturn distinctly different from past bear markets.
A Downturn Without Panic Selling — "The Market Structure Has Changed"
Bernstein said in a report on March 24 that "Bitcoin has reached its bottom and could rise to $150,000 by the end of 2026."
As of the morning of March 25, Bitcoin was trading in the low $70,000 range on CoinMarketCap. Although the price has fallen more than 40% from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 last October, Bernstein sees the current level as the bottom.
The key argument is that the market did not collapse despite such a steep decline. In previous downturns, frightened investors rushed to sell as prices dropped, triggering panic selling where crashes fueled further crashes. This time, no such fear-driven selloff materialized.
"ETF flows remained solid even during the market correction, and year-to-date outflows have already reversed. On top of that, banks are now offering Bitcoin financial services, opening new institutional entry points," Bernstein explained. Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold approximately 6.1% of total supply, acting as a safety net that supports prices during periods of volatility.
The proportion of long-term holders is also notable. Bitcoin that has not moved for more than one year accounts for 60% of total supply. Analysts say the growing base of so-called "HODLers" — investors who refuse to sell regardless of price swings — has reduced the severity of sharp declines.
Bernstein noted that these changes challenge the conventional wisdom that Bitcoin follows a four-year boom-and-bust cycle. Contrary to concerns that 2025 would mark a peak followed by a decline, continued institutional inflows could extend the bull market, the firm said. "This rally cycle will likely peak around $200,000 (approximately 270 million won) by the end of 2027," Bernstein projected.
Strategy's $42 Billion Capital Raise — Accelerating the Buying Pace
A prime example bolstering Bernstein's bullish thesis is Strategy (MSTR).
The company, which holds more Bitcoin than any other entity in the world, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 23 announcing plans to raise a total of $42 billion (approximately 62 trillion won) in new capital.
The plan involves sequentially selling $21 billion in common stock and $21 billion in floating-rate perpetual preferred shares called "STRC (Strife)" on the open market. The company also unveiled plans to issue an additional $2.1 billion in fixed 8% dividend perpetual preferred shares called "STRK (Strike)."
In the same filing, Strategy disclosed that it purchased 1,031 Bitcoin for approximately $76.6 million (approximately 111.8 billion won) between March 16 and 22.
The average purchase price was $74,326 per coin, slightly below its cumulative average of $75,694. The acquisition was funded by $76.5 million raised through the sale of 509,111 common shares. The previous week, preferred share STRC sales had been the primary funding source, meaning the company pivoted back to common stock.
With this purchase, Strategy's cumulative holdings have grown to 762,099 Bitcoin, with total acquisition costs reaching $57.69 billion.
"Strategy alone has purchased more Bitcoin this year than the amount of newly mined supply," Bernstein said. "As the connection between the crypto market and traditional capital markets deepens, sustained demand is being generated." However, the firm noted that Strategy's average purchase price exceeds the current market price of approximately $70,000, meaning selling now would result in a loss.
Risks Behind the Optimism — Dividend Burden and Refinancing Dangers
Still, Bernstein did not overlook the risk factors. If Bitcoin prices fail to recover for an extended period, companies like Strategy that have borrowed to buy Bitcoin could face difficulties. When convertible bonds mature, these companies may have to refinance at worse terms or sell their Bitcoin holdings to repay debt.
In fact, Strategy's outstanding preferred shares have surpassed $10 billion, and annual dividend payments alone exceed $1 billion (approximately 1.5 trillion won). The structure of accumulating highly volatile Bitcoin while bearing interest costs of around 11.5% annually has drawn concern from experts.
However, Bernstein added that "Strategy has a track record of risk management, has weathered deep Bitcoin correction cycles, and has not excessively increased its debt."
Following the March 23 announcement, MSTR shares rose 2.57% to close at $139.14. The stock has gained roughly 5% this month but remains in negative territory year-to-date.
Market observers note that if Strategy's $42 billion capital raise materializes, it would bring the company one step closer to the symbolic goal of holding 1 million Bitcoin. However, questions remain over whether a strategy of continuing high-cost capital raises while sitting on unrealized losses will ultimately benefit shareholders.
