Samsung, SK Hynix Hold Tech Giants' Fate as Memory Prices Surge

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix now hold sway over the survival of Big Tech and IT device manufacturers, analysts say. In the AI era, securing memory supply has become far more than simple parts procurement. This trend is expected to accelerate as delivery prices rise sharply in the second quarter following China's Lunar New Year in February.

Server DRAM Breaks $1,000 Barrier

Data centers expanding their investments are taking the hardest hit. According to Counterpoint Research, prices for 64-gigabyte RDIMM high-performance server DRAM have surpassed $1,000, with projections reaching $1,295 in the second quarter. A striking anomaly has emerged: per-gigabit pricing for standard server DRAM now rivals that of sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4), currently the most expensive AI memory available.

The mobile DRAM market for smartphones is also in turmoil. Prices are surging toward $1.30-$1.50 per gigabit. Even Samsung Electronics and Apple, the two premium smartphone leaders, have voiced concerns about profitability pressures from rising memory costs during earnings calls. Samsung's mobile experience (MX) division saw its operating profit outlook halved compared to last year.

Counterpoint Research projects that meaningful supply relief will only come by late 2027, when Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek P4 and P5 facilities, SK Hynix's Yongin cluster, and expanded Chinese production lines become fully operational.

2027 'Supply Cliff' Looms, Chinese Chipmakers Cash In

The memory supply-demand imbalance shows no signs of easing next year. Hyperscale data centers are planning substantial order increases for 2027, leaving general server and commodity memory buyers in distress.

Meanwhile, the three major memory makers show little inclination to expand commodity memory production, focusing instead on HBM, which offers high profitability and strong demand. Counterpoint Research forecasts that if this continues, commodity memory shortages will become routine, keeping price floors elevated for a considerable period.

Chinese semiconductor companies are reaping unexpected windfalls from this severe shortage. YMTC and other Chinese memory makers are exploiting the global supply crunch, selling commodity memory at premium prices and accumulating substantial capital. Major global PC manufacturers, desperate for components, are already turning to these Chinese suppliers to weather the crisis.

Relief Expected by Late 2027