Goldman Sachs has warned that global equity markets have entered the late stage of their post-pandemic bull cycle, with valuations reaching historically elevated levels and equity risk premiums falling to pre-financial crisis levels.
The investment bank noted that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are amplifying short-term volatility. Historical analysis shows the median S&P 500 correction following geopolitical shocks is approximately 6%, with recovery typically taking two to three weeks.
However, Goldman Sachs assessed that the likelihood of a structural bear market remains limited as long as economic growth and corporate earnings remain solid.
Hormuz Strait Blockade Triggers Record Shipping Rates
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' declaration of a Hormuz Strait blockade and attacks on civilian vessels have sent shipping rates soaring to record highs across both Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern routes.
Daily charter rates for Very Large Crude Carriers on Middle East-Asia routes surged 145% week-over-week to $481,170. Insurance premiums have spiked twelvefold compared to pre-airstrike levels, raising concerns of supply chain disruptions exceeding those seen during the pandemic.
Crude transport costs from the U.S. Gulf to China have reached $29 million—a record high approaching 20% of WTI futures prices. GS Caltex secured VLCC daily charter rates at $424,000, levels industry experts describe as "irrational."
Strong U.S. Data Cements Rate-Hold Expectations
The U.S. services PMI reached 56.1 in February, a four-year high, marking 20 consecutive months of expansion. Private-sector employment rose by 63,000, exceeding market expectations of 48,000 and representing the largest increase since July last year.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed economic activity increased modestly or more in seven of twelve districts, diminishing the case for additional rate cuts.
CME FedWatch data shows the probability of the Fed holding rates steady at the March FOMC meeting has reached 97.3%.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said rising energy prices from the Iran situation could simultaneously fuel inflation and dampen economic activity, making a rate hold "the reasonable approach" for now.
China Sets Lowest Growth Target in 35 Years
Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for this year at the National People's Congress—the lowest since 1991.
China plans to invest 1.3 trillion yuan (approximately 276 trillion won) to boost consumption and develop advanced industries, while increasing R&D spending by 10% year-over-year to 426.4 billion yuan.
The fiscal deficit target remains at a record 4%, and the defense budget rises 7.0% to 1.91 trillion yuan.
SK Chairman to Meet Nvidia CEO on HBM4 Supply
SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won will attend Nvidia's GTC 2026 conference next month to discuss expanding HBM4 supply with CEO Jensen Huang.
Nvidia is expected to unveil its next-generation AI accelerator "Vera Rubin" at the event. SK Hynix has reportedly secured approximately two-thirds of Nvidia's HBM4 allocation.
Samsung Electronics has announced plans to supply chips for early Vera Rubin production, intensifying competition in the high-bandwidth memory market.
Qatar Helium Production Halt Threatens Semiconductor Industry
QatarEnergy declared force majeure after Iranian drone attacks halted operations at its Ras Laffan LNG processing facility.
Production of helium gas—a byproduct of natural gas liquefaction and essential for semiconductor cooling processes—has also ceased. Qatar accounts for approximately 30% of global helium production.
Gas industry publication Gasworld reported helium prices could rise by up to 50%. Reuters estimated Qatar's LNG production will take at least one month to normalize.
Supply disruptions are expected to extend beyond helium to polymers, methanol, and urea, potentially affecting industrial supply chains broadly.
