AI PRISM Custom Economic Briefing
*Editor's note: 'AI PRISM' (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an AI-based customized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six tailored news items for each reader type.*
HBM Surges 50%, Samsung Hits Record High, Gold Reaches New Peak
[Key Issue Briefing]
HBM Prices Skyrocket: Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) are demanding more than 50% higher prices for HBM3E 12-layer chip contract renewals, with prices jumping from approximately $300 per chip to the $500 range. The intensifying AI dominance race among global big tech companies and limited supply expansion are expected to sustain price strength into next year.
Samsung Electronics Hits All-Time High: Nomura Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 160,000 won, forecasting 2026 operating profit at 133 trillion won. The stock reached a record high of 117,000 won, but still has 36.75% upside potential compared to the target price.
SME Loan Delinquency Rate Approaches 1%: The delinquency rate for small and medium-sized enterprise loans climbed to 0.93% as of the end of October, the highest since May. With the double burden of sluggish domestic demand and rising interest rates, investors need to assess risks in related stocks, particularly those with exposure to construction and regional real estate sectors.
[News for Stock Investors]
1. China Exports, AI Competition Heat Up... HBM Prices Rise 50%
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are demanding more than 50% higher prices for HBM3E 12-layer chip contract renewals. HBM3E, previously priced at approximately $300 per chip, has surged to the $500 range, reaching levels of next-generation HBM4 products. As AI performance competition intensifies among big tech companies including OpenAI, Google, xAI, and Anthropic, industry observers say prices are "flying like a rocket." With Samsung Electronics set to begin mass production of HBM4 in February next year, supply expansion remains limited, and memory makers' strengthened pricing power is expected to translate into improved profitability.
2. "Operating Profit of 133 Trillion Won Next Year" Forecast Pushes Samsung to Record High
Nomura Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to 160,000 won, forecasting 2026 operating profit at 133.4 trillion won. Samsung Electronics shares surged 5.31% to 117,000 won, setting a new record high, while SK hynix also rose to 599,000 won. Nomura estimates that fourth-quarter prices for commodity DRAM and NAND increased by 30-40% and 40-60% respectively, suggesting the memory super-cycle could continue until at least 2027. "Domestic chipmakers have lower valuations compared to U.S.-based Micron (216%) and Taiwan's Nanya (497%), presenting an opportunity to increase exposure," said Kim Rok-ho, an analyst at Hana Securities.
3. Sluggish Domestic Demand and Rising Rates Push SME Delinquency Rate to Nearly 1%
The delinquency rate on won-denominated loans at domestic banks reached 0.58% as of the end of October, the highest in seven years since 2018. The SME delinquency rate in particular surged 0.12 percentage points from the previous month to 0.93%, approaching 1%. New delinquent loans totaled 2.9 trillion won, up 400 billion won from the previous month, while resolution of delinquent loans decreased by 3.5 trillion won. The Financial Supervisory Service warned of potential expansion of non-performing loans centered on individual business owners and the construction and regional real estate sectors, signaling a time for investors to review their exposure to related sectors.
4. Gold Prices Jump 60% with Currency Gains... "More Investment Capital Expected Next Year"
Net assets in domestic gold ETFs surged approximately 570% this year, from 868.8 billion won to 5.8322 trillion won. The domestic 'ACE KRX Gold Spot' ETF recorded a 54.49% return in regular accounts, while the overseas 'GLD' ETF achieved a 68.14% return including currency gains. JP Morgan stated that the gold market has entered a phase of structural revaluation and suggested the possibility of gold exceeding $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year. A strategic reassessment of gold as an asset is underway, driven by expanded gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical tensions, with tax benefits maximized when utilizing pension accounts.
