Six of Seoul's 25 districts — Gwanak, Geumcheon, Seongdong, Yongsan, Jongno, and Jungnang — will see zero new apartment supply next year, according to a survey. Redevelopment projects will account for an overwhelming 87% of next year's apartment supply, reflecting the continued reliance on urban renewal projects amid difficulties in designating new development sites in Seoul.
According to data from Zigbang, a real estate information platform, released Sunday, Seocho District will see the most apartment supply in Seoul next year. A total of 5,155 units will be delivered, including 3,064 units at Daelim e-Pyeonhan Sebang Bangbae (redeveloped from Bangbae Zone 5) and 2,091 units at Banpo Raemian Triniwon (redeveloped from Banpo Zone 3). Eunpyeong District will see 2,451 units at Hillstate Medialre, followed by Songpa District (2,088 units), Gangseo District (1,066 units), and Dongdaemun District (837 units).
Dongdaemun District's supply will drop sharply to 837 units next year, a steep decline from 9,522 units this year, when large-scale complexes including Imun I'Park Xi and Hwigyeong Xi Decency were completed.
Gangnam District will see supply plunge 82% from 1,962 units to 349 units, while Seongbuk District will drop from 3,031 units to 199 units. Gwangjin District is also expected to decrease from 1,191 units this year to 215 units.
Experts warn that the reduced supply in Seoul next year could destabilize both the sales and jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) markets. Concerns are rising that districts with zero supply — Gwanak, Geumcheon, Seongdong, Yongsan, Jongno, and Jungnang — may experience housing price instability. Districts with sharp year-on-year declines, including Gangnam, Gwangjin, Seodaemun, and Seongbuk, are also likely to see volatility in both sales and jeonse prices.
"Tenants tend to relocate near their previous apartments when signing new lease contracts, often due to school district considerations," a real estate industry official said. "However, with all of Seoul designated as a land transaction permit zone, buyers must reside in their purchased apartments, which reduces the jeonse supply by the equivalent amount of sales transactions."
The sharp decline in supply in certain districts could ultimately distort both the sales and rental markets, experts noted.
With redevelopment projects accounting for 87% of next year's supply, industry observers are calling for measures to revitalize urban renewal projects. The biggest obstacle to housing redevelopment in urban areas is the reconstruction excess profit recapture system, which levies a 10-50% charge on excess profits exceeding 80 million won per union member from reconstruction projects. The redevelopment industry identifies this system as a major bottleneck for housing supply.
According to data submitted by the Seoul Metropolitan Government to Rep. Lee Yeon-hee of the Democratic Party of Korea, 37 complexes in Seoul are expected to face excess profit charges as of October. The estimated charge per union member amounts to 139.98 million won. Analysts warn that areas with lower project viability, particularly in outer districts, face greater impact, potentially leading to reconstruction project suspensions.
"Not many unions can afford the excess profit charges," said Shin Bo-yeon, a professor at Sejong University's Department of Real Estate and AI Convergence. "Since public land alone cannot meet Seoul's housing supply needs, the government needs to signal its commitment to urban renewal by abolishing the recapture system."
Calls are also growing to ease various reconstruction regulations introduced through the June 27 and October 15 measures. A prime example is the restriction on transferring union membership. While introduced to prevent speculative demand, the restriction has also blocked exit routes for union members who cannot afford their share of project costs. For these members, rapid progress in redevelopment projects becomes burdensome.
Relocation loan restrictions face similar criticism. Under the June 27 measures, the government set a 600 million won limit on relocation and balance loans for non-homeowner union members in redevelopment projects receiving management and disposal plan approval after the implementation date. Two-home owners are completely barred from such loans. This leaves union members unable to secure housing due to lack of relocation funds and unable to sell due to membership transfer restrictions.
"Only policies that expand housing supply through redevelopment project activation can resolve Seoul's supply shortage," an industry official said. "The government and ruling party must take a proactive approach."
