Six out of ten private bankers at Shinhan Investment Corp. expect the Korean stock market to deliver returns comparable to or better than the US market next year, with most recommending investors allocate at least half their portfolio to Korean equities.
Shinhan Investment released the results of its "2026 Market Outlook Survey" of 200 private bankers on Monday. According to the survey, 35.5% of respondents said the Korean market would outperform the US market next year, while 28.5% predicted the two markets would show similar performance. Combined, more than six in ten PBs hold a more positive view of Korean stocks than US stocks. Meanwhile, 31.0% of respondents said the US market would outperform Korea.
The preference for Korean equities was also evident in investment strategy recommendations. Some 76% of respondents recommended allocating 50% or more to Korean stocks. Specifically, 43.0% suggested a 50-50 split between Korean and US equities, while 33.0% recommended allocating 70% or more to Korean stocks. Only 20.0% of PBs recommended a US allocation of 70% or more.
Artificial intelligence and semiconductors were overwhelmingly cited as the sectors expected to lead the market next year. Some 62.5% of all respondents identified AI and semiconductors as the key sectors for the Korean market, followed by bio (23.0%). Automobiles accounted for just 3.5%.
Respondents were relatively optimistic about the global economic outlook. The largest share, 51.5%, predicted both the US and Chinese economies would continue to perform well. This was followed by "US strong, China weak" (25.5%) and "US weak, China strong" (13.0%).
Regarding domestic corporate earnings, 58.0% of respondents expected earnings improvement led by export-oriented stocks such as semiconductors and automobiles. Some 33.5% of PBs forecast a broad-based earnings rally across the market. The view that KOSPI would outperform KOSDAQ was about 10 percentage points higher than the opposite view.
On exchange rates, 41.0% of respondents predicted continued dollar strength, while 36.5% expected exchange rate volatility to decrease with rates fluctuating around current levels.
