Toss Securities' Research Center announced Wednesday that it has published "QnA 2026," a report containing its market outlook for 2026. The Research Center characterized the coming year as "a year where volatility coexists within an upward trend," emphasizing that investors should view volatility as an investment opportunity to manage and utilize rather than avoid.
The Research Center said it developed its 2026 investment outlook through communication with approximately 2,000 individual investors. From the planning stage, the center collected questions from investors through preliminary surveys and selected 26 key questions including "Is AI a bubble?" and "Will the U.S. stock market rise or fall?" presenting them in a Q&A format.
According to the report, the U.S. stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in 2026. Recession concerns are limited, with an overall soft landing scenario anticipated. The risk of sharp inflation has decreased due to energy price stabilization, and even if some consumer slowdown occurs, expanded corporate investment is expected to cushion the impact.
The report also projected that while AI expectations drove markets in 2023 and corporate earnings (EPS) improvement led markets in 2025, interest rate cuts and liquidity supply effects will be added in 2026. This could create a favorable environment where liquidity combines with solid earnings performance.
The report identified artificial intelligence (AI) as the key investment theme. Given the AI-driven bull market, the likelihood of a shift in market leadership in the short term is low, according to the assessment. However, the report advised investors to use correction phases as opportunities to acquire core tech stocks at reasonable prices, as short-term volatility is inevitable.
The domestic stock market is also expected to maintain a gradual upward trend. While short-term fatigue may emerge following significant gains in 2025, the semiconductor sector was identified as continuing its structural growth trajectory. Additionally, improved earnings strength at major companies such as Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) is expected to serve as growth drivers.
"This report is meaningful in that it is a communication-oriented report that started from investors' actual concerns," said Lee Young-gon, Head of Toss Securities Research Center. "We will continue to deliver research that faithfully conveys market trends while staying in tune with investors."
