Apartment transactions along Seoul's Han River belt have plummeted in the aftermath of the October 15 real estate measures, with some districts recording more than 90% declines in sales.
As of November 6, Seoul recorded 2,372 apartment transaction filings for November, excluding purchases by public institutions, according to data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's real estate transaction system. The figure represents a 72.6% drop from 8,663 transactions in October.
While November contract filings have until the end of the month to be reported, current trends suggest monthly transactions may only reach around 4,441—the level seen in August and roughly half of October's volume.
The sharp decline follows the October 15 measures that designated all of Seoul as a regulated zone, including speculative overheating districts and adjustment target areas. Apartments were additionally placed under land transaction permit zones, effectively blocking leveraged purchases using jeonse (lump-sum deposit leases), commonly known as "gap investment."
Districts along the Han River belt—Mapo, Seongdong, Gwangjin, Dongjak, and Gangdong—showed the steepest declines. These areas had led price increases before the October 15 measures, attracting buyers rushing to complete leveraged purchases ahead of the permit zone designation. After the restrictions took effect, buyers shifted to a wait-and-see stance.
Gwangjin District recorded just 18 transaction filings for November as of the latest count, down 91.4% from 210 in October. Seongdong District fell 89.8% from 383 to 39 filings, while Gangdong dropped 89.6% from 568 to 59, and Mapo declined 89.2% from 424 to 46. These four districts ranked as the top areas for transaction declines.
In contrast, the four districts already under triple regulations before October 15—Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Yongsan—showed the smallest declines. Seocho District reported 154 November filings, down just 29.4% from 218 in October. Gangnam recorded 201 filings compared to 293, a 31.4% decrease. Both districts could see November transactions approach or exceed October levels once all filings are completed by month's end. Yongsan fell 40.4% from 114 to 68 filings, and Songpa dropped 44.1% from 608 to 340.
The Seoul apartment market is expected to remain severely depressed through December. Commercial banks have begun annual household loan management, raising interest rates and increasingly suspending mortgage loans for home purchases. As of the latest count, only 105 December transactions have been filed, with Seongdong, Gangdong, Jongno, and Yongsan districts yet to record a single transaction.
Experts say the market contraction will likely continue at least through year-end, as mortgage limits in regulated areas have been reduced to between 200 million and 600 million won, compounded by banks suspending mortgage lending.
"Gap investment is blocked and financing has dried up, so it's difficult to buy a home without cash on hand," a real estate agent in Mapo District said. "There are almost no purchase inquiries, so the transaction slump will continue for some time."
