▲ AI Prism* Customized Economic Briefing* Editor's Note: 'AI PRISM' (Analytical Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an 'artificial intelligence (AI) -based customized news recommendation and summary service' developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. We select and provide 6 customized news items for each type of reader
? U.S. Money Release Begins... HBM and ETF Cataclysm [AI PRISM x D? LOG]
[Key Issues Briefing]
■ HBM Yanggang System: As the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) ecosystem, Google's AI inference chip, expands, the HBM market is being reorganized around Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With a monthly production capacity of 55,000 units, Micron is being pushed out of the competition by only one-third of Samsung Electronics (150,000 sheets) and SK Hynix (160,000 sheets), and Samsung Electronics plans to more than double the supply of TPU next year compared to this year.
■ Recovery of bio performance: 6 of the 10 listed companies in the HLB Group achieved operating surpluses in the 3rd quarter of this year, and the synergy between business reorganization and affiliates after M&A is being visualized. HLB BioStep (278650) showed the biggest improvement from a deficit of 1.8 billion won to a surplus of 1.1 billion won in the same period of the previous year, HLB Global (003580) showed the biggest improvement by switching from a deficit of 1.4 billion won to a surplus of 300 million won, and HLB Genex (187420) succeeded in turning into a surplus after one quarter of joining the group.
■ Improving the ETF structure: Demand for permission to adjust the face value is spreading as the price per ETF share rises steeply due to strong domestic stock markets. It is pointed out that the TIGER US NASDAQ 100 ETF soared to 165,000 won per share, making it less accessible to small investors, and conversely, the inverse ETF fell to 744 won, turning into a coin stock, causing speculation, so it is necessary to supplement the system.
[News of interest to stock investors]
1. The game changed due to Google's TPU rise... Samsung Electronics/SK hynix restore 'HBM two-top'
The HBM supply chain is being narrowed to a two-way war between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix due to the expansion of the TPU ecosystem designed by Google in collaboration with Fabrice Broadcom in the US to drive AI. It has been observed that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have an equal share of HBM supply in TPU this year, and a reversal in supply share is likely from next year, when Samsung Electronics aggressively increases production capacity. Kim Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities, estimated that “next year's 8th generation TPU model is expected to be equipped with HBM4 (6th generation), and Samsung Electronics will supply more than double the volume compared to this year.” Samsung Electronics' share of the HBM market plummeted from 40% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 15% in the second quarter of this year, but it is expected to be a catalyst for a rebound in market share due to the expansion of TPU volume. Micron's monthly wafer production capacity is 55,000 sheets, which is only one-third of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
2. 60% of HLB listed companies have surpluses... “Rebuilding comes to fruition after M&A”
Of the 10 listed companies of the HLB Group, 6 achieved operating surpluses on an individual basis in the 3rd quarter of this year, and 4 of these companies succeeded in surpluses due to a deficit in the same period of the previous year. HLB BioStep showed the biggest improvement by shifting from a deficit of 1.8 billion won to a surplus of 1.1 billion won, and HLB Global switched from a deficit of 1.4 billion won to a surplus of 300 million won. An analysis shows that the effects of HLB Group's steady rebuilding, such as business reorganization and synergy between affiliates, began to appear in earnest after M&A. HLB Genex achieved an operating profit of 1.9 billion won by the 3rd quarter as a result of reducing unnecessary R&D costs and focusing on a competitive enzyme business after joining the group. HLB Panagin (046210) is entering the 3rd year of joining the group and recorded an operating profit of 990 million won by the 3rd quarter, growing by 735.3% over the same period of the previous year.
3. ETF worth up to 160,000 won per share... “Face value adjustments must be allowed”
As the price per share of ETFs rose steeply this year due to strong domestic and international stock markets, the demand that ETFs should also be allowed to adjust face value (face split/merger) is spreading in the industry. “TIGER US NASDAQ 100,” the most expensive domestic ETF, recorded 165,000 won per share at the closing price on the 28th, and the average price of a domestic listed ETF was 20,5063 won, up more than 10% from the end of 2021. On the other hand, the downward pressure on the price of an inverse ETF has increased significantly, and the inverse double ETF recently dropped to 744 won. Under the current system, commercial law limits division and merger targets to “domestic stocks,” so both par value splits and mergers for ETFs are not permitted. An official from a major management company said, “Even if the ETF price exceeds 100,000 won, the burden on individual investors will increase,” and “permitting division and merger will increase price accessibility and have a positive impact on securing liquidity.”
[Stock investor reference news]
4. 46% of large companies “expand overseas investment”... domestic business expansion stopped at 25%
While 45.7% of workplaces with 300 or more employees classified as large companies have made plans to expand overseas investment next year, only 25% responded to expand domestic investment, and concerns about industry cavitation are growing. According to a survey of the CEOs and executives of 229 companies with 30 or more employees by the Korea Executive Association, 40% of companies with 300 or more employees said they would reduce domestic investment. As for the overall management plan for next year, 41% of large companies chose austerity management, followed by rationalizing workforce management (61.1%), reducing company-wide costs (53.7%), and reducing new investment (37%) as austerity measures. The average Korean economic growth rate predicted by companies next year is 1.6%, which is lower than the forecasts of the Bank of Korea (1.8%) and the Industrial Research Institute (1.9%), and 52.8% of companies expect economic recovery to begin in earnest only next year.
5. U.S. Federal Reserve Ends Quantitative Austerity After Two and a Half Years... 'Everything Rally' Returns
The US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will end the quantitative austerity (QT, balance sheet reduction) that began in June 2022 on December 1, 2 years and 6 months later. Quantitative austerity is a monetary policy that absorbs market liquidity by not selling treasury bonds and housing mortgage securities (MBS) held by the Federal Reserve or reinvesting them after maturity. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the amount of assets held by the Federal Reserve, which reached 8.96.5.5 trillion dollars in April 2022, fell to the level of 6.552.4 trillion dollars on the 26th of this month. The market is showing expectations that suppressed investment sentiment will improve significantly due to the supply of liquidity following the end of quantitative austerity, leading to a year-end rally. Wall Street predicted that increased market liquidity would contribute to the year-end global stock market's Santa rally, and the interest rate futures market expects a 0.25% point rate cut in December to 86.4%.
6. 'Strengthening the supply chain' POSCO opens a new logistics base in Vietnam
POSCO Group establishes a local logistics corporation in Vietnam and strengthens the global supply chain. POSCO Flow, a logistics subsidiary of the POSCO Group, recently completed a report on the establishment of a corporation with the Vietnamese government and will begin full-scale business in December. The Vietnamese corporation is responsible for the POSCO Group's steel products, raw materials, and secondary battery materials, and is expected to pursue measures to secure logistics business for domestic companies that have entered Vietnam. POSCO Flow's sales surpassed 2.5 trillion won last year, and currently operates local subsidiaries in Slovenia, China, Canada, and Thailand. The establishment of a Vietnamese corporation has tightened the logistics network connecting North America, Asia, and Europe, and according to global market research firms, the Vietnamese logistics market is expected to continue to grow at an average annual rate of 6% or more until 2030.
▶ Go to article: U.S. Federal Reserve Ends Quantitative Austerity After Two and a Half Years... 'Everything Rally' Is Coming Back
▶ Go to article: 45.7% of large companies “will expand overseas investment”... domestic investment will be reduced
▶ Go to article: “Zero recycling of 5 rare earths such as cerium... the development of 'urban mining' is urgent”
? December 1, 2025 (Mon) Page 1 Unboxing [ON AIR Seoul Economic Daily]
