South Korea's failure to advance to the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America has cast a shadow over the "World Cup windfall" that the broadcasting industry had anticipated. While advertising for Korea's group-stage matches continued its sellout streak, the elimination from the round of 32 has significantly raised the likelihood that additional ad sales and ratings gains will be limited.
According to industry sources Friday, the failure to reach the round of 32 has effectively closed the window for advertising sales for those matches. Ad sales after the round of 16 have not yet begun in earnest, but with Korean national team matches excluded even after the tournament bracket is confirmed, observers expect that the advertising impact and ratings increase will fall short of initial expectations. The industry had hoped that if the national team advanced to the knockout stage, it would bring additional ad sales from the increased number of matches, as well as higher advertising rates driven by rising ratings. However, analysts say such a "second-half World Cup windfall" has now become virtually impossible to expect.
JTBC is known to have secured the domestic broadcasting rights for this tournament for approximately 190 billion won. JTBC subsequently resold joint broadcasting rights to KBS for approximately 14 billion won, establishing a joint broadcasting system with the terrestrial network. KBS sold advertising for Korea's group-stage matches through the Korea Broadcast Advertising Corporation (KOBACO), and TV advertising for the opening match against the Czech Republic sold out at approximately 6 billion won. While KBS is known to have secured advertising revenue exceeding the 14 billion won joint broadcasting rights fee through group-stage ad sales, analysts say the tournament's box-office effect will be limited due to the Korean national team's early elimination.
The World Cup is a representative sporting event in which advertising value varies greatly depending on the national team's performance. If Korea advances to the knockout stage, not only does the number of matches increase, but advertising rates also rise as ratings climb. Consumption of derivative content such as special programs before and after matches, highlights, and digital clips also increases, expanding advertising and sponsorship revenue. JTBC had also devised a strategy to recoup its investment through advertising, sponsorship, and content distribution based on its large-scale broadcasting rights investment, so the national team's early elimination is expected to act as a considerable burden in terms of box-office success.
However, some analysts say it is difficult to conclude that Korea's elimination will lead to a downturn in the World Cup's overall box-office performance. As this is likely to be the last World Cup stage for Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, and with big matches among the title contenders continuing, overseas matches could also draw high interest and partly drive ad sales and ratings. In particular, some forecast that if the tournament's box-office success continues, including the two players' "last dance," it could partly offset the blow caused by the absence of Korean matches.
Still, the industry believes it will not be easy to fully replace the impact that Korean national team matches have on the domestic advertising market with overseas matches alone. Korean matches are a national event that draws in even casual viewers, whereas overseas matches tend to be watched mainly by football fans.
"The impact of the Korean national team's performance on domestic broadcasters' advertising value remains absolute," an industry official said. "But given the symbolism of Messi and Ronaldo's last World Cup and the continuing big matches in the knockout stage, the key variable for the remaining tournament's success will be how much global box-office appeal can fill the gap left by the Korean matches."
