Airfares between Asia and Europe are soaring as jet fuel prices spike in the aftermath of the Iran war, with some routes surging more than fivefold in a single month and raising concerns about weakening travel demand.
Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing data from research firm Alton Aviation Consultancy, that the average airfare on the Hong Kong–London route was $3,318 (approximately 4.98 million won) as of June 23.
That represents a 560% surge from the previous month. Over the same period, the Bangkok–Frankfurt route jumped 505% to $2,870 (approximately 4.3 million won), while the Sydney–London route also climbed 429%.
The rise in airfares is unlikely to be a short-lived phenomenon. Bloomberg projected that disruptions to energy supply chains could keep ticket prices elevated through the summer and potentially into the fall.
Price increases have continued into June. Average fares on seven major routes from Asia-Pacific to Europe rose approximately 70% compared with the same month last year. The Sydney–London route in particular averaged $1,500 (approximately 2.25 million won), roughly double the level from a year ago.
Flights from Europe to Asia tell a similar story. Fares as of June rose up to 79% year-on-year, with some routes confirmed to have more than tripled. Alton Aviation forecast that Asia–Europe route fares will remain at least 30% above year-ago levels through at least October.
The direct cause of the price surge is jet fuel. After the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for crude oil transport — was blocked, causing jet fuel prices to roughly double. Fuel costs account for approximately one-third of total operating expenses in the airline industry, meaning oil price increases are being passed directly through to fares, analysts said.
Airlines have responded accordingly. Major carriers including Air France-KLM, Cathay Pacific and Air New Zealand raised fuel surcharges in succession this month. Some airlines are also reportedly reviewing plans to adjust or reduce operations on certain routes due to uncertainty over fuel procurement.
Experts are placing significant weight on the possibility that price pressures will persist for a considerable period. Brian Terry, director at Alton Aviation Consultancy, said, "Even if the war ends early, it takes up to three months for lower prices to be reflected in the jet fuel supply chain." He added, "Upward pressure on airfares will continue as longer flight times from alternative routes, a shortage of available seats and high oil prices converge."