Ukraine War Exposes Cracks in US Hegemony, French Historian Argues

The fallout from the Ukraine war, which began four years ago, has far exceeded initial expectations. Contrary to forecasts of a swift conclusion, the conflict has dragged into a protracted war, exposing vulnerabilities in global supply chains and the world economy. The war has revealed fractures throughout the global order, transcending a mere regional dispute. French anthropologist and historian Emmanuel Todd argues that a structural crisis in Western civilization lies at the heart of these fractures.

Todd gained prominence in the 1970s for predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union. He has analyzed national stability and regime longevity through long-term indicators such as demographics and family structures. In his latest book, "The Defeat of the West" (published by Akanet), he applies the same methodology to assess the current state of Western society.

According to the author, the war's tilt toward Russian victory—despite full-scale support from the United States and Europe—reflects a crisis in Western civilization. He attributes this to the combined effects of declining industrial production capacity, weakening social cohesion, and demographic shifts. While the US and its allies championed democratic values and freedom, they lacked sufficient material, political, and social foundations to sustain a prolonged industrial war. Economic power, financial sanctions, and technological superiority failed to prove decisive on the battlefield, Todd contends.

Todd focuses particularly on the crisis facing the United States, the center of Western hegemony. The erosion of the manufacturing base, collapse of the middle class, and weakening religious foundations have undermined social cohesion, resulting in repeated military interventions with unclear strategic objectives, he argues. He interprets these as symptoms of a "late empire"—a state where military power persists while internal unity deteriorates.

In contrast, Russia, China, and other nations maintain social cohesion through communal family structures and strong nation-state ideologies. The author explains that these structural differences create asymmetries in the international order.

However, Todd does not definitively predict Western decline. He proposes reexamining the standards of power and order we have taken for granted. The book challenges readers to soberly assess the global changes revealed by the Ukraine war. Having sparked heated debate across European society, this work offers an alternative perspective on international affairs.