Despite setting a course for confrontation, the Korean medical community is deeply conflicted over opposing the government's medical school enrollment increase without clear justification.
Although the scale of the increase has been significantly reduced compared to two years ago, the medical community continues to reject the physician workforce supply projection results and is contemplating launching a campaign against the government.
The Korean Medical Association (KMA) plans to hold an emergency press conference on the 10th immediately following the government's official announcement. The KMA has repeatedly called for halting the enrollment increase, arguing that "the projection results themselves lack scientific basis and the government is rushing to reach a conclusion under self-imposed deadlines." The association maintains that the projection model (ARIMA) used by the government's estimation committee relies solely on past trends and is outdated. Given the dire educational conditions at universities—including the "doubling" problem where students from the 2024 and 2025 classes must attend lectures together—the KMA argues enrollment changes should be minimized for the time being. It also contends that factoring in future healthcare changes such as telemedicine and integrated care could actually reduce the number of physicians needed. The KMA's Medical Policy Research Institute released findings suggesting "physician oversupply could reach up to 13,967 by 2035 and 17,967 by 2040" after the future physician projections became mired in controversy over inconsistent figures.
Previous attempts to expand medical school enrollment have repeatedly failed due to collective resistance from medical organizations, despite growing concerns about physician shortages as the population ages rapidly. Since the 2000 separation of prescribing and dispensing, the medical community has consistently played the "strike card" whenever policies perceived as unfavorable to physicians—such as telemedicine or enrollment expansion—were proposed. Strikes at major hospitals treating severe and emergency patients directly affect public health, creating significant pressure on the government. This has been the biggest barrier to expanding medical workforce. During the implementation of the separation policy, medical school quotas were actually reduced as the government used them as a bargaining chip to appease the medical community.
This time, however, the KMA is taking a more cautious approach toward collective action such as general strikes. Paradoxically, the biggest obstacle is that the government has largely accommodated the medical community's demands. This enrollment increase was derived through the "scientific estimation body" that the medical community had long demanded, and medical representatives were given significantly greater representation in the committee's composition. The justification that previously drove collective action under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration—claims of "a baseless 2,000-person increase"—no longer holds.
Public sentiment, exhausted by more than two years of conflict between the government and medical community, has turned cold—another burden for the KMA. It remains uncertain whether resident physicians and medical students, who have led protests since the 2020 enrollment expansion push, will step forward again. The Korean Intern Resident Association (KIRA) recently informed the KMA that 75% of internal survey respondents said "active response is necessary," and medical students have also clearly opposed the plan, citing concerns about inadequate education. However, observers widely believe a repeat of the mass resignations or enrollment boycotts seen in 2024 is virtually impossible. To make matters worse, participation rates among private practice physicians in strikes have been low, leaving the medical community with few options. "Residents and medical students who left training hospitals and schools for a year and a half starting in 2024 face too much uncertainty to stake their futures on collective action again," said one medical community insider. "With limited time remaining, there appears to be neither justification to block the enrollment increase nor any clear solution."