The Korean government has narrowed down the projected physician shortage for 2037 to between 4,262 and 4,800 doctors and will finalize the medical school enrollment quota increase on January 10. The increased quota will apply for five years from the 2027 academic year through 2031.
The Ministry of Health and Welfare announced Thursday that these medical school quota adjustment plans were discussed at the sixth meeting of the Health and Medical Policy Deliberation Committee held in Seocho-gu, Seoul. The committee is the highest deliberative body for health and medical policy, comprising government officials, medical professionals, patient advocacy groups, and experts.
According to the three models selected, the projected physician shortage in 2037 ranges from a minimum of 4,262 to a maximum of 4,800. The Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Projection Committee had previously presented 12 models combining various supply and demand scenarios, which the deliberation committee reduced to six before narrowing down to three.
The government plans to calculate the quota increase for existing medical schools after excluding the 600 physicians expected to graduate from the public medical graduate school and newly established regional medical schools. This narrows the discussion range for quota increases at the 32 medical schools outside Seoul to between 3,662 and 4,200. If distributed equally over five years, annual increases of 700 to 800 students are likely.
However, reflecting concerns that a rapid increase in medical school enrollment could deteriorate educational conditions, the government decided to set enrollment caps for each university. The caps will be applied differentially based on school characteristics, considering national universities' role in training regional essential medical personnel and the educational conditions of smaller medical schools.
Disagreements over the projection results emerged during the meeting. Kim Taek-woo, president of the Korean Medical Association, did not agree with the supply projections, but consensus was reached without a vote as most other committee members aligned on the matter.
The Ministry of Health and Welfare refuted claims raised by some organizations that "overseas medical school graduates were excluded from supply projections." A ministry official explained, "Supply projections are calculated based on the number of applicants for the national medical licensing examination, not medical school quotas, so those admitted outside the quota and overseas medical school graduates are included. All committee members except the KMA understood this."
Minister of Health and Welfare Chung Eun-kyung said, "While determining the scale of physician training is important, we will implement comprehensive measures to ensure the quota increase leads to resolving the crisis in regional, essential, and public healthcare."